Pales In Comparison

Three Days To Go.....

.....and there is what some see as the inevitable tightening in the polls and a tightening in the pit of my stomach.  Like many other Obama supporters, I'm a bundle of anxiety and a mass of nervous energy; hanging chads in 2000 and disenfranchised voters in 2004 aren't confidence builders for those of us who desire change and have hope for an America that is better for all Americans.

On the flight home last evening, I found that I was listening to Pride (in the Name of Love) by U2, Dave Stewart's American Prayer and Early in Morning by Peter, Paul and Mary over and over, trying to keep the election bogeyman in the back part of my brain, where he belongs. 

This morning, helping to keep the demons at bay is some good news for Obama:

• Fivethirtyeight.com now calculates that John McCain has only a 2.8% chance of winning, his lowest percentage ever.  
• Pollster.com shows a tighter race, but Obama is still maintaining a 6% point lead.
• Early voting in Florida favors Obama. 
• Mr. Canned Tan (John Boehner) of Ohio is losing his marbles over Obama.  

And finally, the best news for Obama, is that his campaign is still run by numbskulls.  This from the official campaign memo:

Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate. (emphasis mine)

Uh, no Mr. Davis. That is wrong, wrong, wrong.  That should read "no Republican candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio."  Kennedy did it and so did FDR.  John McCain has to have Ohio.  Barack Obama can lose Ohio and still win the electoral college.  In fact fivethirtyeight.com, shows that there is an 81% chance that will actually happen.  It calculates that McCain has less than 1% chance of losing Ohio and winning the Presidency. 

But none of the polls or calculations will matter unless we get out the vote.  So in the next three days, make sure that all your progressive friends get out and vote.  If you have time, canvass or phone bank for Obama.  If you don't have time for that, send an email for Obama.  And please, please, please--vote. 

Some Early Morning Maths

• According to the latest NYTimes/CBS poll, Sarah Palin's favorable rating is now 32 percent, a pretty steep drop from 40 percent early in October (and light years away from her famous 80% approval rating as Gov'ner).  Her unfavorables have jumped up to 41 percent. May I just say, hallelujah and thank you for waking up, America.
• The latest Gallup poll shows the inevitable tightening in the race with Obama losing a point and McCain gaining a point--but Obama is still leading by a nice margin 50-43%, but even the conservative leaning RCP shows Obama with his largest lead of the race 7.3%. 
• Fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama with a win percentage of 95.1% to 4.9%.  
• The CNN instant poll had Obama winning last night's debate by the largest margin of all three debates, 58 to 31%.  

It's all looking mighty fine, but it's not over.  The GOP, knowing that the only way that they can possibly win this election is by voter suppression, continues its assault on ACORN and all voter registration methods that do not keep lower-income, non-white voters from voting--and as the election slips farther and farther away from McCain, the more hysterical and shrill the cries of "fraud."  (need a bit of perspective on the ACORN kerfluffle?  Matthew Yglesias explains)

Where were these staunch defendents of honest and free elections when Katherine Harris was illegally and systematically purging legal voters from Florida's rolls in 2000?  Where were these advocates for integrity in voting when Ken Blackwell was disenfranching thousands of African-American voters in Ohio in 2004?  Where were they in 2006 when the GOP in California was having its share of registration issues? 

Integrity in voting is crucial, necessary and should be protected at all costs.   No one is suggesting that voter fraud shouldn't be taken seriously. But 1)there is a difference between registering and voting and 2) the GOP attack on ACORN is a lot of pot meeting kettle.

Ohio Rocks the Vote

As Ohio goes.... No Republican has won the election without winning Ohio since Abraham Lincoln....The whole world is watching Ohio. They talk about us in the same breath as New York City and Los Angeles because all of a sudden Ohio is a player when it comes to big time politics*..... 

Ohio Matters.  Ohio always matters. George Bush won in Ohio by a margin of less than 125,000 votes, in a state that had 7.7 million registered voters in 2004, and Ohio's was looking very good for John McCain this year, but no more. 

Ohio is finally a contested state.  Well, sort of contested.  It actually avalanched from leaning McCain to solidly Obama in the matter of about seven days.  According to the latest Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio voters, Obama is leading McCain by seven points, and while there are a lot of politics to play out before November 4th, this is the first time that Obama has had any lead outside the margin of error in the Buckeye state. 

Obama supporters aren't about to claim victory prematurely.  They're continuing to drive voter registration and to support Barack.  On Saturday, LeBron James and Willie McGinest held a voter registration rally in Cleveland and Democratic efforts to get out the vote are working in Obama's favor.  Today is the last day to register to vote in Ohio.

Yesterday, Bruce Sprinsteen performed a free concert at Ohio State in suppport of Obama. He was introduced by Senator John Glenn and Luke Perry* was spotted hanging around.   The Obama campaign knows it leads

Race will play a part in voting in Ohio, but the one factor that may over come that issue in Southern and Eastern Ohio is the student vote.  Ohio has a college in almost every town and the Obama campaign has a strong grass-roots organization working to get out the student vote. 

Obama doesn't have to win Ohio to win the election, but it surely would be nice to have those 20 electoral votes go to him. As Ohio Goes.....

John McCain's Bad Week II Continues

Newsmax, the uber-right wing news organization, is reporting that the Palin effect has paled and McCain is in trouble again.  Dick Morris' poll analysis shows Florida now leaning Obama, NH leaning Obama, most of the Big 10 States (MI, WI, IA,and MN) leaning Obama (with Ohio being a toss-up--c'mon people. You embarrassed me in 2004, don't do it again). 
Morris's numbers are close to fivethirtyeight.com's latest polling, which is good news, but the states that are considered toss up are not in alignment. Still, they both show Obama with a very strong lead on electoral votes.   

The only caveat I'll add is that I doubt most polls in this election.  While I hope and wish it's not true, because Obama is a black man, I think there are a lot of people who will poll one way and who will vote another.